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Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Identifieur interne : 004A25 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 004A24; suivant : 004A26

Long‐term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations

Auteurs : V. Eyring [Allemagne] ; J. M. Arblaster [Australie, États-Unis] ; I. Cionni [Italie] ; J. Sedlá Ek [Suisse] ; J. Perlwitz [États-Unis] ; P. J. Young [États-Unis, Royaume-Uni] ; S. Bekki [France] ; D. Bergmann [États-Unis] ; P. Cameron-Smith [États-Unis] ; W. J. Collins [Royaume-Uni] ; G. Faluvegi [États-Unis] ; K. Gottschaldt [Allemagne] ; L. W. Horowitz [États-Unis] ; D. E. Kinnison [États-Unis] ; J. Lamarque [États-Unis] ; D. R. Marsh [États-Unis] ; D. Saint-Martin [France] ; D. T. Shindell [États-Unis] ; K. Sudo [Japon] ; S. Szopa [France] ; S. Watanabe [Japon]

Source :

RBID : ISTEX:9D3311582FA61BB9019A1D68096D695911A848DE

Descripteurs français

English descriptors

Abstract

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long‐term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

Url:
DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50316


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Le document en format XML

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<term>Absolute values</term>
<term>Annual cycle</term>
<term>Antarctic</term>
<term>Antarctica</term>
<term>Arctic region</term>
<term>Atmos</term>
<term>Atmospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Atmospheric component</term>
<term>Atmospheric research</term>
<term>Atmospheric temperature</term>
<term>Bodeker</term>
<term>Butchart</term>
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<term>Chem multimodel</term>
<term>Chemical reactions</term>
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<term>Chemistry schemes</term>
<term>Cionni</term>
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<term>Climate impacts</term>
<term>Climate impacts figure</term>
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<term>Linear trend</term>
<term>Long term variation</term>
<term>Lower stratosphere</term>
<term>Main reference</term>
<term>Methane</term>
<term>Mid latitude</term>
<term>Midlatitudes</term>
<term>Miroc4h</term>
<term>Modb</term>
<term>Model description</term>
<term>Model simulations</term>
<term>Model validation</term>
<term>Model versions</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Multimodel</term>
<term>National institute</term>
<term>National science foundation</term>
<term>Niwa</term>
<term>Nochem</term>
<term>Nochem group</term>
<term>Nochem models</term>
<term>Nochem multimodel</term>
<term>Northern midlatitudes</term>
<term>October</term>
<term>Ozone</term>
<term>Ozone changes</term>
<term>Ozone chemistry</term>
<term>Ozone concentrations</term>
<term>Ozone data</term>
<term>Ozone database</term>
<term>Ozone depletion</term>
<term>Ozone hole</term>
<term>Ozone projections</term>
<term>Ozone recovery</term>
<term>Ozone time series</term>
<term>Ozone trends</term>
<term>Ozonesonde measurements</term>
<term>Phys</term>
<term>Polar region</term>
<term>Poleward</term>
<term>Polvani</term>
<term>Precursor</term>
<term>Precursor emissions</term>
<term>Previous studies</term>
<term>Radiative</term>
<term>Randel</term>
<term>Rcps</term>
<term>Representative concentration pathways</term>
<term>Santer</term>
<term>Scenario</term>
<term>Schmidt</term>
<term>Seasonal cycle</term>
<term>Second half</term>
<term>Shindell</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Solar cycle</term>
<term>Source gases</term>
<term>Southern Hemisphere</term>
<term>Southern hemisphere</term>
<term>Southern midlatitudes</term>
<term>Southern ocean</term>
<term>Space studies</term>
<term>Sparc</term>
<term>Special report</term>
<term>Spring(season)</term>
<term>Sres</term>
<term>Stratosphere</term>
<term>Stratospheric</term>
<term>Stratospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone changes</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone depletion</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone recovery</term>
<term>Sudo</term>
<term>Summer</term>
<term>Temperature changes</term>
<term>Temperature trends</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total column ozone</term>
<term>Tracer</term>
<term>Tropics</term>
<term>Tropopause</term>
<term>Tropopause region</term>
<term>Troposphere</term>
<term>Tropospheric</term>
<term>Tropospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Tropospheric column ozone</term>
<term>Tropospheric ozone</term>
<term>Upper stratosphere</term>
<term>Various rcps</term>
<term>Vertical layers</term>
<term>Vertical levels</term>
<term>Watanabe</term>
<term>Weak equatorward shift</term>
<term>Zonal</term>
<term>Zonal wind</term>
<term>Zonal winds</term>
<term>climate change</term>
<term>greenhouse gas</term>
<term>methane</term>
<term>ozone</term>
<term>stratosphere</term>
<term>trend-surface analysis</term>
<term>troposphere</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Pascal" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Analyse tendance</term>
<term>Antarctique</term>
<term>Arctique</term>
<term>CMIP3</term>
<term>CMIP5</term>
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Climatologie</term>
<term>Déplétion</term>
<term>Etude comparative</term>
<term>Eté</term>
<term>Forçage</term>
<term>Gaz effet serre</term>
<term>Hémisphère Sud</term>
<term>Modèle climat</term>
<term>Modèle couplé</term>
<term>Modèle multiple</term>
<term>Moyenne latitude</term>
<term>Méthane</term>
<term>Ozone</term>
<term>Printemps</term>
<term>Projection climatique</term>
<term>Scénarios de concentration</term>
<term>Stratosphère</term>
<term>Température atmosphérique</term>
<term>Troposphère</term>
<term>Variation long terme</term>
<term>Zone polaire</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Teeft" xml:lang="en">
<term>Absolute values</term>
<term>Annual cycle</term>
<term>Antarctic</term>
<term>Antarctica</term>
<term>Atmos</term>
<term>Atmospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Atmospheric component</term>
<term>Atmospheric research</term>
<term>Bodeker</term>
<term>Butchart</term>
<term>Ccmval</term>
<term>Ccsm4</term>
<term>Centre</term>
<term>Chem</term>
<term>Chem group</term>
<term>Chem models</term>
<term>Chem multimodel</term>
<term>Chemical reactions</term>
<term>Chemical species</term>
<term>Chemical tracers</term>
<term>Chemistry</term>
<term>Chemistry scheme</term>
<term>Chemistry schemes</term>
<term>Cionni</term>
<term>Clim</term>
<term>Climate</term>
<term>Climate change</term>
<term>Climate impacts</term>
<term>Climate impacts figure</term>
<term>Climate model</term>
<term>Climate models</term>
<term>Climate sensitivity</term>
<term>Climate simulations</term>
<term>Climatological</term>
<term>Climatological zonal</term>
<term>Climatology</term>
<term>Cmip3</term>
<term>Cmip3 models</term>
<term>Cmip5</term>
<term>Cmip5 chem multimodel</term>
<term>Cmip5 model versions</term>
<term>Cmip5 models</term>
<term>Cmip5 multimodel</term>
<term>Cmip5 simulations</term>
<term>Community climate system model version</term>
<term>Data sets</term>
<term>Database</term>
<term>Decadal</term>
<term>Different rcps</term>
<term>Different regions</term>
<term>Eesc</term>
<term>Eld</term>
<term>Emission scenarios</term>
<term>Extratropical</term>
<term>Extratropical circulation</term>
<term>Eyring</term>
<term>Forcings</term>
<term>Future changes</term>
<term>Future climate change</term>
<term>Future evolution</term>
<term>Future ozone</term>
<term>Future period</term>
<term>Future projections</term>
<term>Future simulations</term>
<term>Future trends</term>
<term>Gent</term>
<term>Geophys</term>
<term>Geosci</term>
<term>Ghgs</term>
<term>Giss</term>
<term>Global</term>
<term>Global climate model</term>
<term>Grid</term>
<term>Gure</term>
<term>Hadley centre</term>
<term>Halogen</term>
<term>Halogen scenario</term>
<term>Heterogeneous reactions</term>
<term>Historical period</term>
<term>Horizontal resolution</term>
<term>Important role</term>
<term>Individual cmip5 models</term>
<term>Individual models</term>
<term>Interactive</term>
<term>Interactive chemistry</term>
<term>Interannual variability</term>
<term>Intercomparison</term>
<term>Intergovernmental panel</term>
<term>Ipcc</term>
<term>Isoprene</term>
<term>Isoprene emissions</term>
<term>Kawase</term>
<term>Lamarque</term>
<term>Lett</term>
<term>Linear trend</term>
<term>Lower stratosphere</term>
<term>Main reference</term>
<term>Methane</term>
<term>Midlatitudes</term>
<term>Miroc4h</term>
<term>Modb</term>
<term>Model description</term>
<term>Model simulations</term>
<term>Model validation</term>
<term>Model versions</term>
<term>Modeling</term>
<term>Multimodel</term>
<term>National institute</term>
<term>National science foundation</term>
<term>Niwa</term>
<term>Nochem</term>
<term>Nochem group</term>
<term>Nochem models</term>
<term>Nochem multimodel</term>
<term>Northern midlatitudes</term>
<term>October</term>
<term>Ozone</term>
<term>Ozone changes</term>
<term>Ozone chemistry</term>
<term>Ozone concentrations</term>
<term>Ozone data</term>
<term>Ozone database</term>
<term>Ozone depletion</term>
<term>Ozone hole</term>
<term>Ozone projections</term>
<term>Ozone recovery</term>
<term>Ozone time series</term>
<term>Ozone trends</term>
<term>Ozonesonde measurements</term>
<term>Phys</term>
<term>Poleward</term>
<term>Polvani</term>
<term>Precursor</term>
<term>Precursor emissions</term>
<term>Previous studies</term>
<term>Radiative</term>
<term>Randel</term>
<term>Rcps</term>
<term>Representative concentration pathways</term>
<term>Santer</term>
<term>Scenario</term>
<term>Schmidt</term>
<term>Seasonal cycle</term>
<term>Second half</term>
<term>Shindell</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
<term>Solar cycle</term>
<term>Source gases</term>
<term>Southern hemisphere</term>
<term>Southern midlatitudes</term>
<term>Southern ocean</term>
<term>Space studies</term>
<term>Sparc</term>
<term>Special report</term>
<term>Sres</term>
<term>Stratosphere</term>
<term>Stratospheric</term>
<term>Stratospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone changes</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone depletion</term>
<term>Stratospheric ozone recovery</term>
<term>Sudo</term>
<term>Temperature changes</term>
<term>Temperature trends</term>
<term>Time series</term>
<term>Total column ozone</term>
<term>Tracer</term>
<term>Tropics</term>
<term>Tropopause</term>
<term>Tropopause region</term>
<term>Troposphere</term>
<term>Tropospheric</term>
<term>Tropospheric chemistry</term>
<term>Tropospheric column ozone</term>
<term>Tropospheric ozone</term>
<term>Upper stratosphere</term>
<term>Various rcps</term>
<term>Vertical layers</term>
<term>Vertical levels</term>
<term>Watanabe</term>
<term>Weak equatorward shift</term>
<term>Zonal</term>
<term>Zonal wind</term>
<term>Zonal winds</term>
</keywords>
<keywords scheme="Wicri" type="topic" xml:lang="fr">
<term>Antarctique</term>
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Chimie</term>
<term>Climat</term>
<term>Changement climatique</term>
<term>Climatologie</term>
<term>Base de données</term>
<term>Halogène</term>
<term>Ozone</term>
<term>Simulation</term>
</keywords>
</textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract">Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960–2005) and future (2006–2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long‐term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (~20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to ~10 DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.</div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations>
<list>
<country>
<li>Allemagne</li>
<li>Australie</li>
<li>France</li>
<li>Italie</li>
<li>Japon</li>
<li>Royaume-Uni</li>
<li>Suisse</li>
<li>États-Unis</li>
</country>
<region>
<li>Canton de Zurich</li>
<li>Colorado</li>
<li>Midi-Pyrénées</li>
<li>Occitanie (région administrative)</li>
<li>État de New York</li>
<li>Île-de-France</li>
</region>
<settlement>
<li>Paris</li>
<li>Toulouse</li>
<li>Zurich</li>
</settlement>
<orgName>
<li>École polytechnique fédérale de Zurich</li>
</orgName>
</list>
<tree>
<country name="Allemagne">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Eyring, V" sort="Eyring, V" uniqKey="Eyring V" first="V." last="Eyring">V. Eyring</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Eyring, V" sort="Eyring, V" uniqKey="Eyring V" first="V." last="Eyring">V. Eyring</name>
<name sortKey="Gottschaldt, K" sort="Gottschaldt, K" uniqKey="Gottschaldt K" first="K." last="Gottschaldt">K. Gottschaldt</name>
</country>
<country name="Australie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Arblaster, J M" sort="Arblaster, J M" uniqKey="Arblaster J" first="J. M." last="Arblaster">J. M. Arblaster</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="États-Unis">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Arblaster, J M" sort="Arblaster, J M" uniqKey="Arblaster J" first="J. M." last="Arblaster">J. M. Arblaster</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Bergmann, D" sort="Bergmann, D" uniqKey="Bergmann D" first="D." last="Bergmann">D. Bergmann</name>
<name sortKey="Cameron Mith, P" sort="Cameron Mith, P" uniqKey="Cameron Mith P" first="P." last="Cameron-Smith">P. Cameron-Smith</name>
<name sortKey="Faluvegi, G" sort="Faluvegi, G" uniqKey="Faluvegi G" first="G." last="Faluvegi">G. Faluvegi</name>
<name sortKey="Horowitz, L W" sort="Horowitz, L W" uniqKey="Horowitz L" first="L. W." last="Horowitz">L. W. Horowitz</name>
<name sortKey="Kinnison, D E" sort="Kinnison, D E" uniqKey="Kinnison D" first="D. E." last="Kinnison">D. E. Kinnison</name>
<name sortKey="Lamarque, J" sort="Lamarque, J" uniqKey="Lamarque J" first="J." last="Lamarque">J. Lamarque</name>
<name sortKey="Marsh, D R" sort="Marsh, D R" uniqKey="Marsh D" first="D. R." last="Marsh">D. R. Marsh</name>
<name sortKey="Perlwitz, J" sort="Perlwitz, J" uniqKey="Perlwitz J" first="J." last="Perlwitz">J. Perlwitz</name>
<name sortKey="Perlwitz, J" sort="Perlwitz, J" uniqKey="Perlwitz J" first="J." last="Perlwitz">J. Perlwitz</name>
<name sortKey="Shindell, D T" sort="Shindell, D T" uniqKey="Shindell D" first="D. T." last="Shindell">D. T. Shindell</name>
<name sortKey="Young, P J" sort="Young, P J" uniqKey="Young P" first="P. J." last="Young">P. J. Young</name>
<name sortKey="Young, P J" sort="Young, P J" uniqKey="Young P" first="P. J." last="Young">P. J. Young</name>
</country>
<country name="Italie">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Cionni, I" sort="Cionni, I" uniqKey="Cionni I" first="I." last="Cionni">I. Cionni</name>
</noRegion>
</country>
<country name="Suisse">
<region name="Canton de Zurich">
<name sortKey="Sedla Ek, J" sort="Sedla Ek, J" uniqKey="Sedla Ek J" first="J." last="Sedlá Ek">J. Sedlá Ek</name>
</region>
</country>
<country name="Royaume-Uni">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Young, P J" sort="Young, P J" uniqKey="Young P" first="P. J." last="Young">P. J. Young</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Collins, W J" sort="Collins, W J" uniqKey="Collins W" first="W. J." last="Collins">W. J. Collins</name>
<name sortKey="Collins, W J" sort="Collins, W J" uniqKey="Collins W" first="W. J." last="Collins">W. J. Collins</name>
</country>
<country name="France">
<region name="Île-de-France">
<name sortKey="Bekki, S" sort="Bekki, S" uniqKey="Bekki S" first="S." last="Bekki">S. Bekki</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Saint Artin, D" sort="Saint Artin, D" uniqKey="Saint Artin D" first="D." last="Saint-Martin">D. Saint-Martin</name>
<name sortKey="Szopa, S" sort="Szopa, S" uniqKey="Szopa S" first="S." last="Szopa">S. Szopa</name>
</country>
<country name="Japon">
<noRegion>
<name sortKey="Sudo, K" sort="Sudo, K" uniqKey="Sudo K" first="K." last="Sudo">K. Sudo</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Watanabe, S" sort="Watanabe, S" uniqKey="Watanabe S" first="S." last="Watanabe">S. Watanabe</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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